Over the past week, things have settled down with our metrics. The 'pirated software' frenzy has diminished to less than 30 per day and the existing players are falling into a nice rhythm. Using resource averages over the past three days, I modeled a forecast of 10x and 100x growth.
- Total Users: All the players that have signed up to date
- Active AVG: Daily average of Active Players
- Total to Active: Ratio of players that are playing at any given time
- CPU Hours: Based on current usage, total CPU Hours used on AppEngine
- CPU Free: Google provides 46.3 CPU Hours for free (thank you!)
- Over / Under: Represents our demand as compared to the Free Level
- Daily Cost: Multiplies our Over/Under CPU Hours by $0.10 per AppEngine pricing
- Monthly Cost: Anticipates 31 days of the Daily Cost
Based on CPU usage, we're very close to paying for resources already with just a soft launch! When we go free & start promoting, I fully expect thousands of players to flock to the system - especially with the viral 'recruiting' nature of the game. Achieving a 10x growth will happen quickly, and the 100x may not take long either. We can handle $285 per month, but the $4K per month is a huge expense.
The trick to this whole equation is balancing against revenue. Unfortunately, we don't know how users will adopt our 'in-game' transactions and Offer system. This lack of clarity/knowledge puts us in a precarious 'chicken or egg' situation. At this point, we have to prepare for the expense and hope the revenue works out... Ironic since I've said "hope is not a strategy" at least 100x in my life :)
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